Key Highlights
- A World War I veteran and longtime commander of Jordan’s Arab Legion, Glubb later became a historian and author after retiring in 1956. In 1976, he published his influential essay “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival,” based on his study of more than a dozen empires over 3,000 years, from the Assyrians to the British Empire.
- Glubb observed that most empires tend to last around 250 years and pass through seven recurring stages: pioneers, conquest, commerce, affluence, intellect, decadence, and decline. He argued that despite cultural and technological differences, empires follow similar moral and social patterns—shifting from duty and discipline to materialism, fragmentation, and loss of cohesion.
- While not presented as strict destiny, Glubb’s framework was meant as a warning, and it continues to shape modern debates on imperial rise and decline, including discussions about the United States. Sir John Bagot Glubb KCB CMG DSO OBE MC KStJ KPM, also known as Glubb Pasha and Abu Hunaik, was a British military officer who led and trained Transjordan's Arab Legion between 1939 and 1956 as its commanding general. Drawing from verified historical data and current US economic indicators as of January 2026, this article examines these stages, their manifestations in past empires, and why the US may be progressing through them faster than anticipated.
- While predictions of imminent collapse remain debated—many economists note that similar warnings have proven false in the past—the data highlight vulnerabilities that could accelerate risks if unaddressed. Stage 1: Military OverextensionEmpires often begin their decline by spreading resources too thinly across global commitments. Historical examples abound.
- Spain in the 16th century maintained armies on four continents, with military spending consuming half its revenue.
