Bitcoin gets liquidity lifeline as US injects $3 billion into banking system amid oil price spike

Key Highlights

• It is also reacting to the infrastructure that moves them. Reuters reported that insurers have been withdrawing coverage for vessels operating in the conflict zone, prompting some tankers and container ships to reroute or avoid the area. That matters because once insurers step back, the cost of disruption spreads beyond the value of the lost barrels themselves. As a result, delivery schedules become less reliable, freight costs rise, refining margins can widen, and regional shortages become more likely. In that environment, the war premium is not limited to raw supply.
• It extends into transport, insurance, and timing. Iran added to that premium on March 2 by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatening to attack ships attempting to pass through. Whether Tehran can fully enforce such a threat remains uncertain, but the market does not need certainty to react.
• It only needs to assign a higher probability to a disruptive outcome. So, even intermittent attacks, temporary rerouting, or higher insurance costs can keep crude prices elevated because the market starts to price not just missing barrels, but impaired movement. That is especially important because the conflict is arriving at a moment when many baseline forecasts had pointed to a relatively comfortable oil market. Before the latest escalation, expectations for 2026 were still anchored by the view that supply growth would outpace demand growth. The US Energy Information Administration projected Brent would average about $58 a barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027, based on rising inventories and stronger production.
• The International Energy Agency sketched a similar backdrop, with demand growth of about 850,000 barrels a day in 2026 against supply growth of around 2.4 million barrels a day. On paper, those figures suggest oversupply.
• In practice, oversupply does not erase chokepoint risk. The marginal barrel still has to move from producer to consumer, and the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important transit points.