Global coal production growth to slow in 2026, amid shifting supply dynamics GlobalData Mon, December 22, 2025 at 5:04 PM GMT+5:30 2 min read Global coal production in 2026 is expected to remain flat with an annual growth of 0.2% to 9,355.8 million tonnes (mt), marking a slower pace of growth compared with 2025, as structural pressures intensify across major producing regions. The outlook reflects continued weakness in China, persistent oversupply conditions in Indonesia and the US, and sustained price softness across the value chain, which together limit incentives for large-scale production expansion. China’s coal output is projected to decline by 0.8% in 2026, the first fall since 2016, driven by excess supply, stagnant downstream demand, and elevated inventory levels throughout the domestic market.
