Story byMarshall GershonWed, January 21, 2026 at 8:58 PM UTC·5 min readIf you’re looking for real NFL Conference Championship betting predictions for moneyline, over/under and spread, you’re in the right spot. FTN’s NFL simulation model ran 10,000 simulations for each Conference Championship matchup, projecting win probabilities, moneyline edges and upset likelihoods so you know where the value actually is. AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWith that, let’s dive into this week’s games and see what the FTN betting model is projecting. New England Patriots @ Denver BroncosBest Edge: Broncos +4.5The Patriots head to Denver as significant favorites in this matchup, largely due to the quarterback position. After leading the Broncos to a win over the Bills, Bo Nix and Denver received devastating news, as Nix will require ankle surgery, abruptly and unexpectedly ending his season. If the Broncos are going to pull off the upset this week and reach the Super Bowl, it will have to be on the backs of their defense. Denver has been one of the league’s most dominant defensive units, and that showed up in the numbers this season.