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Prediction markets find war profitable — $529 million traded on US-Iran bets, insider trading suspected by some accounts

War is a profitable business on the prediction markets, with as much as $529 million trading hands on Polymarket in bets tied to the United States strikes on Iran this weekend, as per a Bloomberg report. By 28 February (day of the attack), the biggest contract on Polymarket attracted around $90 million in trading volume since its creation. The second biggest bet on US attack on Iran was for 31 January, with $42 million bets, the report added.

Prediction markets find war profitable — $529 million traded on US-Iran bets, insider trading suspected by some accounts

Credit: Livemint

Key Highlights

  • Next biggest rival platform, Kalshi saw $36 million in bet volume around an Iran regime shift question, as per a Washington Post reporter.
  • Largely unregulated, the prediction markets have no specific rules or oversight on unfair practices such as insider trading.
  • Analysts from Bubblemaps SA found that six accounts minted $1 million in profits by betting the exact date of the attack — 28 February (Saturday), it added.
  • Polymarket did not immediately respond to queries on Saturday, Bloomberg said.
  • Tracking patterns of the accounts that made big money amid the new war, the analytics firm noted that these were new accounts were made in February.
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Sources

  1. Prediction markets find war profitable — $529 million traded on US-Iran bets, insider trading suspected by some accounts

This quick summary is automatically generated using AI based on reports from multiple news sources. The content has not been reviewed or verified by humans. For complete details, accuracy, and context, please refer to the original published articles.

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