Key Highlights
- moving to effectively take control of Venezuela’s oil at precisely the moment when the global system is struggling to absorb existing supply—let alone more—the until oil markets reopen Sunday night.
- But the early implication is clear: A market already leaning toward surplus now has even fewer reasons to expect relief. Even before the latest developments in Caracas, forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the U. S.
- Energy Information Administration, and major investment banks were converging on a projected surplus of roughly 1.5 to two million barrels a day in 2026.
- That outlook follows a steep 20% decline in crude prices in 2025, as OPEC+ began unwinding production cuts and additional supply hit a market already showing signs of fatigue.
- As prices fell, the cartel slowed the pace of further adjustments and has more recently held output steadier, reducing its capacity—or willingness—to absorb new barrels. Non-OPEC supply growth from the U. S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina is expected to remain the dominant source of global production growth into 2026, while global demand growth is forecast to remain modest. The timing of the U. S.
