Key Highlights
- Traders price the decision, they price the dots, they price a handful of key lines in the press conference, then they move on. Now Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to take over as chair, and my thinking immediately shifts from “when do cuts start” to something more uncomfortable: “what happens when the person holding the mic changes the whole vibe?”Trump and his allies increasingly communicate in a blunt, combative, slogan-driven style that prioritizes confidence, loyalty, and media impact over technocratic precision. I don't think it is outlandish to suppose that Warsh will adopt similar rhetoric as Fed Chair… which is kind of wild when you think about it. Instead of the usual sedative-laced prose about “symmetric inflation targets” and “labor market equilibrium,” imagine Warsh leaning into the mic with a weary, predatory confidence:Look, we’re done with the forensic bed-wetting of the previous regime.
- We aren't going to sit here squinting at spreadsheets like ‘Too Late Powell.' … Everybody knows the economy is screaming for a win, and we’re going to give it one.
- We’re deploying interest rates so sharp, so aesthetically pleasing, and so unapologetically massive that the DXY will look like a vertical line of pure, unadulterated testosterone.
- … It’s not ‘data-dependent'; it’s ‘destiny-dependent.' We’re making the dollar king of the universe.
- If you can’t see the genius in that, you’re just not paying attention. This is where it gets interesting for traders, and for everyone who ends up paying the bill when markets get jumpy. The question is not simply whether Warsh is “dovish” or “hawkish.” The question is whether the Fed becomes easier to read, or harder to trust, or both at the same time. The ground we’re standing on right nowThe Fed has decided to hold the policy rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, with the latest decision coming in its Jan.
