Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Arsenal, left, are top of the Premier League while Wolves, right, are bottomPublished41 minutes ago17 CommentsArsenal will spend Christmas Day on top of the Premier League tree this year, while Wolves, Burnley and West Ham are hanging precariously on the bottom branches. As we approach the halfway point of the season, what do the ghosts of Christmas past tell us about the title race and relegation battle?The title raceThe team that is top of the Premier League on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in 17 of the previous 33 seasons – basically a flip of a chocolate coin. However, Arsenal themselves have a much bleaker record as they've been top at Christmas four times before but have never gone on to lift the trophy. The Gunners had only been top at this stage twice before Mikel Arteta took charge, but this is the third time in four seasons that they sit top of the tree at Christmas. Their fans will hope that the wisdom Arteta's men have received in seasons past will see them finally hold off Manchester City and deliver the gift they've been wishing for since 2004."You'd like to think that through all the experiences that Arsenal have had being top at Christmas, they can understand the mistakes made in the back half of some seasons that stopped them from winning the title," former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha told Football Focus. There isn't a lot of room for error though as Arsenal have a slender lead of just two points, while the average lead by the team top on Christmas Day is four points. In fact, the only table-toppers at Christmas to have a smaller lead than Arsenal in the last 12 seasons were the Gunners themselves two years ago. But while a two-point lead isn't much, history suggests it might be enough. Arsenal are the eighth side in Premier League history to have a two-point lead at Christmas and five of the previous seven went on to win the title, including the last four. Bizarrely Arsenal are the only side to win the Premier League without ever doing it when they were top at Christmas, as all three of their titles came when chasing the leaders at this time of year. They were sixth and an incredible 13 points behind leaders Man Utd in 1997-98, second and three points behind Newcastle in 2001-02 and third and one point behind Man Utd at Christmas time in 2003-04. That 13-point deficit in 1997-98 is the most points a team has ever been behind the leaders at Christmas and won the title (Arsenal did have a game in hand), while the lowest the eventual champions have been in the table at this stage is eighth, by Manchester City in the Covid-delayed season of 2020-21. Weirdly the team in second on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in only two of the past 17 seasons, although both times it was Manchester City who did so. In fact, in the last five seasons where the leaders at Christmas did not go on to win the title, the Premier League was won each time by Manchester City. Will this season be different for Arsenal?For many Arsenal fans, there will be a sense of deja vu. Leading the Premier League at Christmas before being eaten up by a relentless Pep Guardiola side is something the Gunners have got a little bit used to. Seeing a seven-point lead over Manchester City cut to two in the space of five games won't exactly fill them with confidence either."We're back on top of the table but we're not watching City too much, or the other teams," said Bukayo Saka. "We're in control now.
